For so long now if you’ve been like me, you’ve found at times that you just don’t even want to watch the news because every time you see the talking heads, they’re talking about how bad things are and how they’re only going to get worse.  In many conversations I’ve had with my brother who is a financial advisor (Hi Rich…), I’ve asked him his opinion on what they’re saying and what it means and how he feels about things.  As things are sometimes, there’s good in there somewhere… but a lot of times, it’s too hard to see.  And what’s interesting is, as we all know, Bad News Sells!  A lot of the guys and gals who were screaming the loudest about how bad things are and about how they’re going to continue to get worse actually had something to gain by spreading that word, so it’s kindof hard to take every word as it comes out. 
Okay, well if you’ve followed what I’ve written before (sorry, it’s been a little while), then you’ll recall that I felt in January or so that we were getting close (closer anyway) to what appears could be the bottom of this recession / housing market …(pick your label, insert here ____).  My other prediction was that we’d probably be bouncing along the bottom for a little while.  At the time though I felt it wasn’t going to be a come-back with a bang, but rather that there would be continued downward pressure on pricing for a while etc…

Then I mentioned something about how great the opportunities were if you are a buyer in today’s market, and … well, unfortunately here’s the tough part… to be a seller in today’s market requires some (rather…great deal of) intestinal fortitude.

SO I may have understated things a little, but who can blame me. 

Now is an AWESOME Time to be in the market to buy Real Esate (and just about anything else… Cars, appliances, electronics, food…) because EVERYTHING is basically On Sale Now!

And what’s even better, is that IF you are buying Real Estate, and particularly if you’re buying a house as a first time home buyer (Defined by the IRS in part as anyone who has not owned a home in the past 3 years), you can get Paid to do so.  This is where the $8,000 first time home buyer Tax Credit comes in.  (I talk more about this Tax Credit in the For Buyers area of my web site www.JohnPolson.com). 

Holy Smokes!  Some of these opportunities only come around once in a lifetime… and that makes this Real Estate market (and the business) particularly interesting.  Doesn’t mean it ain’t a little scary, but it SURE is interesting! 

What do I mean by Opportunities.  SOOO Many people are scared to spend money, how can I say it’s a great time to buy Real Estate when SO Many people have lost SO much in a collapsed housing market?  Aren’t I just repeating the same old line to make it all look more rosy than it is? 

That’s where the numbers come in.  And the Markets in general.  Have you ever seen a Market Cycle graph?   It’s a fun little graphical representation of what happens in the life cycle of a typical business cycle and it applies to about anything in life that has a cyclical nature to it (which is just about everything).  Nothing moves in a straight line.  Businesses don’t grow and markets don’t function on a straight growth patter, the stock market fluctuates up and down, back and forth and typically in patterns over several years.  The perplexing nature of these cycles is that the clearly define (so it would seem anyway) thatwhen everyone is doing something, is the time to not be doing it, and when noone is doing anything, is the time to be doing it!  Which brings us to where we are today…

By the numbers…

Sales of Real Estate pretty well peaked in 2005-2006.  I don’t have all of the statistics right in front of me, but go with me…  Generally speaking sales volume was still high in 2007, but the signs of correction were already rearing their head.  There were a number of reasons for this that have been beaten to death, but still…  the point is, it was like a bandwagon thing.  Real Estate was bringing during that period of time double digit appreciation rates.  Normally and historically, Real Estate is a good investment, but the rate of return averages typically 5 percent or so.  During THIS period though, appreciation rates exceeded 15% in many cases, and in a LOT Of cases market conditions drove prices up by 25% or more and this kept on for a while!  And EVERYONE wanted to Buy!  There was a Euphoria.  Buy Buy Buy… the market is HOT, Everyone was buying and prices were at their Highest!  That means… Risk… also was at it’s Highest!!! 

Then the bottom dropped out, which started happening late 2007 and came into clear focus with the foreclosure crisis that overtook markets in 2008 and that carries over today to greatly discounted prices, lower equity for most homeowners and troubled financial circumstances for many families. 

There’s no way I want to attempt to minimize the circumstances that SO many American’s (and so many in the world actually) are facing today.  What’s happened to many families in this economy is terrible.  Here’s something perhaps that I can say that might give perspective and offer some sense of hope… “I do not deny the reality of our situation… I DO However deny the Finality of it!” (a quote from Anne Frank in the book “The Travelers Gift”)   

Where the numbers tell us we are now, won’t REALLY be clear for another 6 months or so.  So, if you thought by reading the headline of this article, I was going to have all the numbers for you, I really don’t.  But what I do have is this bit of hope and a positive and rather convincing thought to ponder…

If everyone is so convinced that it’s a great idea to buy when the market is hot and prices are the highest (and thus…believe it or not…Risk is at it’s HIGHEST) which actually as we know ends up being folly, then why… would it not be easy to be convinced that, when the market is NOT so hot, err… rather, things appear to be their gloomiest, and prices are at (or near) their lowest, and thus… Risk is at or near GONE, that THEN (err…Now)  is actually the best time to buy!

Of course, buyers have to have money to buy and we all know that.  Otherwise this would all be easy…  But…Oooh…Wait… Interest Rates are LOW, which means money is Cheap! 

And…Oooh…check this out!  If you’re a first time home buyer, here’s this $8,000 in your pocket as a Tax Credit.

So I guess what I have to say is this… it is actually pretty easy.  Not easy if you’re in financial straights.  I feel for those who are and I know your pain (we live it every day with you believe it or not).  But it’s easy… in that, if you really think about it, Yes… if you can buy today (and you feel good about your job, etc..)… there’s little reason not to!  Risk is nearly gone from the market, which only happens when the market is at or near it’s bottom (which we may actually be past … check the March 2 – March 9 week of the stock market).  Opportunities are available now like we’ve not seen in … well, a long time. 

A friend of mine recently made a comment about something he was going through in his life.  Every day seemed like an emotional roller coaster.  A little wisdom has taught me a lot of things… and one piece of wisdom I can pass on is this… if you don’t like roller coasters… don’t go on the ride.  What I mean here is don’t get caught up in the emotional confusion that is the news of the day. 

Faith is a MUCH better guide than reason, reason can be changed by the slightest suggestion of doubt.   Faith… faith in your decisions, faith in your ability to decide, faith in yourself, faith in … something bigger… Faith is a MUCH Better guide than reason and I encourage you to have a little faith… I have Faith that right now is there are incredible opportunities to buy Real Estate.  If you or anyone you know is thinking about it, now’s a great time to take action.  Think about it, give me a call (804-339-7014) if you have any questions or e-mail me:  JohnPolson@PleasantLife.com  I’d love to know your thoughts.